I’ve continued my series on Ontario’s failure to translate its wind production into reductions of coal production, now into its fourth month – January 2011. This follows the earlier reports: October’s Record Days, November 2010, and October/December 2010. In this series I’m using actual production numbers to see if more wind production ever leads to less coal production. So far during these three months there’s been no connection between the two – leading one to conclude that the IESO ignores the wind output and essentially exports whatever wind production there is, at whatever wholesale price that exists at that time (which fairly often falls below zero, where you are paying people to take it). For the first time the R-squared value, which is a reflection of how much of a relationship exists between the wind and coal production numbers, climbed above 0.05, to a still-unimpressive 0.08. Unfortunately, the relationship was in the wrong direction – as wind increased, so did coal. Oops.
I have now studied 4 traditionally windy months – where if a relationship existed it would likely have been found. Here’s the chart.