UPDATE – I’ve rerun the numbers and checked my logic a zillion times and finally decided to pull all the “cow” postings.
Any electric grid is complicated to begin with, and trying to figure a secondary product (emissions) of anything complicated is even more so. I think my general technique is reasonable, but I can’t totally convince myself that it represents reality.
My apologies to everyone who took the time to read through these postings, and maybe at least they gave everyone something to think about.