Lansink and Clear Creek

Ben Lansink is on a roll.  Earlier this month (October 2012) he published the first-ever case study on the effects of wind turbines on property values, based on 5 sales and resales in the Melancthon, Ontario area.  Not content with that, he has just published the second-ever case study on those effects, this time based on 7 sales/appraisals and resales  in the Clear Creek, Ontario area.  The results are depressingly similar, as related in the following (thankfully clickable) chart:

His study is 58 pages long and includes the supporting data from both areas.  For Clear Creek he eliminated (as he did in Melancthon) farm properties and properties with turbines on them.  Of these 7, 6 were homes and 1 was a vacant “bush” lot.  Two of the homes were sold well before the project went into operation and resold well afterwards.  The other five were appraised by MPAC, Ontario’s tax assessor, before the project and then resold on the open market after the project went into operation.

In the Melancthon study Lansink verified that the original sales to the developer were at reasonable market values; in Clear Creek no developer was involved so this step was unnecessary.  In desperation, the wind industry might try to argue that the MPAC assessments weren’t accurate but I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for them to present any evidence to that effect.  These numbers are hard to refute.

When discussing property values, the wind industry seems fond of statistical significance.  In that spirit, I offer a quick recap of the 12 properties Lansink has studied.  The average decline was 36.99%, with a standard deviation of 12.26.  That calculates to 3.02 SD’s from zero – zero being what the wind industry is claiming.  That, in turn, translates to a 99.87% chance that the wind industry is WRONG.  I’m guessing that those are about the same odds that the wind industry will try to ignore this second very powerful study, and continue quoting the flawed and weak but more agreeable Hoen study.

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